In early 2021, China’s position in the South China Sea is expanding. This has been proven for several reasons, China still has extremely close relations with Indonesia and the Philippines. This fact is inseparable from the policy of the Beijing government which continues to add members of its army to the region. In fact, according to several reports in 2020 and 2021, the Chinese military in the South China Sea is more than that of the United States, which is responsible for “maintaining” free navigation.

According to a March 2021 National People’s Congress report, Beijing will increase its military budget at 1.35 trillion RMB or about 210 million US dollars. This figure has indeed increased while the previous year, 2019, the Finance Minister of the People’s Republic of China said that China’s military budget was only 177 million US dollars.

The increase in the amount of the military budget is in line with Beijing’s plans under the Belt and Road Initiative. The government in Beijing has advanced the argument that the increase in the budget was indeed part of economic and military development, which had begun since the reforms of the Deng Xiaoping era.

Dhruva Jaishankar, Fellow of the Lowy Institute argued“what is without a doubt today is that China today has the second most powerful military after the United States, and that represents the extent to which Beijing has become an even competitor to Washington in as a world power, its ability to play an offensive role in future conflicts has increased.

The increase in China’s military budget will have an impact on Indonesia.

Aggressive but closed.

Besides the fact that China has a large budget in global orders, the relationship between Indonesia and China has indeed increased and this is dangerous. The economic sector, the latest 2020 report, which was published based on a report from China Customs, estimated that Indonesia’s total trade value with that country in 2020 was US$78.5 billion. Indonesia’s export value to China reached $37.4 billion, an increase of 10.10 percent from 2019.

In the medium term of the Covid-19 pandemic. Chinese investments in Indonesia too increase 9% in the I/2020 semester, or 2.4 billion US dollars compared to 2.2 billion US dollars in the I/2019 semester.

At the end of 2020, the researcher of the Institute for the Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) Mr. Zulfikar Rakhmat also argued that “assessment of Indonesia’s foreign policy and changes in Indonesia’s global economy is currently highly dependent on China”

This investment is indeed the main reason why Beijing is approaching Jakarta through the BRI and the Global Maritime Fulcrum or GMF. As a result, Beijing can indeed be more flexible in broadening its discourse or expanding its power in Indonesia, especially through military means.

In 2020, the famous US military, the Pentagon, released an annual report titled “Military and Security Development Involving the People’s Republic of China 2020” which indicated that China was even planning to open a military base in Indonesia.

In addition, the Pentagon pointed out that China sees Indonesian territory as the gateway for the BRI project. It was none other than the South China Sea and control of the Strait of Malacca, which was once traversed by China’s predecessors as a silk or trade route.

This fact is in line with what happened in Djibouti in 2017. Some analysts even claim that this discourse also existed in Pakistan and in the Nordic countries to Antarctica.

The fake news was dismissed by Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, who responded officially by saying that “I would like to emphasize that, in accordance with the lines and principles of Indonesian foreign policy, Indonesian territory cannot and will not be used as a military base. for any country […] I repeat, Indonesian territory cannot and will not be used as a military base for any country. “

However, China is unlikely to stop.

The entry of the Chinese coastguard twice (2019-2020) is a strong warning for the Indonesian government to be firm. It has also seen China’s confrontation with the Philippines become heated. The increase in the Chinese military domestically is indeed a warning to the central government in Indonesia and may have implications for several things.

Consequences – what to do?

Although Indonesia already has an alliance with the United States and Japan in a joint military training program in the South China Sea thanks to the confirmation of Indonesian Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia will not feel not immune to Chinese pressure if not dealt with seriously. and carry on.

First, the main implication is that Indonesia might not have sovereign rights over Natuna. China’s military modernization will put it in a stronger position to claim Natuna as part of the nine-dash line, even if Indonesia will reject the nine-dash line. In other words, the Chinese military will be strong and free to operate in Natuna. Thus, Indonesia only has status over the islands and China can have sovereignty over the water.

Second, China has the potential to freely operate its military up to the Straits of Malacca. The increase in the military budget, which is part of the BRI, could turn the Strait of Malacca into a trade route that would pass through the Indian Ocean and then to Africa. Moreover, if China can periodically open sea routes via Natuna and Malacca, Indonesia can become a hub for China in Southeast Asia, just as its ambition has made the program the hub of the vaccination program.

For this reason, Jakarta must give a firm response so that it cannot be controlled indirectly by Beijing.

The Indonesian government must abide by the principles of ZOPFAN and free-active policy, as always emphasized by Retno Marsudi who argued that “Indonesia proposes to ASEAN Foreign Ministers that ASEAN may release a joint statement to emphasize its commitment to the principles included in ZOPFAN. . Back. ASEAN’s commitment to ZOPFAN needs to be strengthened again and so the commitment of the parties to the Treaty of Amity or Cooperation or TAC is also important to be reaffirmed. “

In early 2020, the Fishermen’s Association gathered and protested at the Chinese Embassy in Jakarta to call on the Indonesian government to push back the Chinese ship Natuna. This was done only so that fishermen could enjoy their own seafood without foreign interference.

Finally, the government in Jakarta must negotiate firmly or, if necessary, call the Indonesian ambassador to China in vigorous protest. Ultimately, Chinese military modernization will increasingly be controlled by the Indonesian government itself.

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